Red vs. Blue States: What 8 Housing Differences Can Tell Us About the Election
Red vs. Blue States: What 8 Housing Differences Can Tell Us About the Election
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By now, we’ve all come to grips with the fact that this is shaping up as the most monumental presidential election in (at least) a generation. The results in November will ultimately determine which way the Supreme Court will lean, who will be allowed into the country, how the nation will deal with Russia and China, even how we’ll pay for the roofs over our collective heads—or whether we’ll be able to. Conspiracy theories, email servers, taco bowls… Is there any aspect of American life that won’t be affected?
We’ve got it: It’s important. Even so, we’re getting a just a little bit played out, seeing that ever-changing electoral map every time we turn on CNN, Fox News, MSNBC—maybe even Syfy, Oxygen, and GOD TV.
It seems that every political wonk is obsessively fixated on that darn map, and whether Republican-voting states will remain red, Democrat-voting states will stay blue and where swing states will, well, swing in the upcoming election.
The data team here at realtor.com® has already examined the residential real estate and tax policies of both Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump. So this time, we decided to indulge our other obsessions—digging deep into the differences in how folks in blue, red, and swing states (which we’ve not so creatively dubbed purple states) actually live.
Who has the biggest homes? How about the most expensive residences? And while we’re on the topic, where do millennials stand the best chance of becoming homeowners?
We looked at data from Nielsen Demographics, Nielsen Scarborough, and Nielsen Financial, as well as our own, of course, to come up with our findings. We used Politico‘s list of those critical 11 swing states where the election will likely be won or lost—Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin—as well as its lists of established red and blue states.
Our analysis confirmed some long-held beliefs about the differences between the Grand Old Party and the Democratic Party of Franklin D. Roosevelt. But it also upended some of our preconceived notions, and may provide some insight into why each candidate can inspire fervent devotion in some, and sheer, unadulterated terror in others.
“It speaks to the diversity that is America,” says realtor.com® Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke. “It’s really tough to see that there’s any one candidate who could appeal to all Americans. We reflect the cultures and the way of living from where we come from.”
So let’s head to the realtor.com electoral map! (Click to see a large version.)
1. Which states have the most expensive homes?
It’s long been known that Democratic strongholds, largely based in the Northeast and California, tend to be wealthier. Lucky them! The median household income in those states is $62,564—about 23% higher than red states, where it’s $50,820, and 13% more than in swing states, at $55,524.
And on top of that, 1.4% of households in left-minded blue states bring home $500,000 or more, which makes sense when factoring in all those six- and seven-figure bonuses on New York’s Wall Street and tech fortunes in California’s Silicon Valley. The percentage of folks making half-a-mil-plus bank may not sound all that high, but it’s 133% more than the percentage in right-leaning states and 75% more than in purple states.
Since liberal state denizens are earning more, it’s not exactly a tremendous leap of logic that their residences are also worth more. The median home value is $301,000—a whopping 91% more than more conservative swaths of the country and 59% more than those middle-of-the-road regions of America. Hawaii has the most expensive homes, followed by Washington, DC, and California.
The ultra-critical swing state of Ohio has the least expensive homes, followed by the red states of Indiana and Kansas.
“What we’ve seen is a migration of people to the coasts of the country. It’s for jobs, it’s for amenities,” says Rachel Meltzer, an urban policy professor at the New School, in New York. “[But] there’s only so much land to build on—so prices are going to go up if people keep wanting to live there.”
2. Which states have the most homeowners?
Despite those higher incomes in liberal parts of the U.S., homeownership is highest in red states, where it simply costs less. About 67.9% of households in Republican-supporting states are homeowners—compared to 63.5% in Democratic strongholds and 67.8% in swing states.
“Owning a home is more attainable in red states, because the cost difference [in home prices] is substantially more significant than the income difference,” realtor.com’s Smoke says. “[And] you also get more in terms of space.”
The state with the highest rate of homeownership was none other than Vermont, the blue-as-you-can-get home of onetime presidential contender Bernie Sanders.
And the city with the highest homeownership rate is in another liberal stronghold, San Jose, CA. The Silicon Valley city is one of the most expensive markets in the nation, as the next big tech stars compete over the very limited number of homes on the market, pushing up prices. The median list price of homes is $767,000 in the city, according to realtor.com.
Washington, DC, the blue district that isn’t quite a state, has the lowest homeownership rate, followed by New York. Miami, in the swing state of Florida, was the city with the lowest rate of homeownership.
Many buyers in red states may not be raking in a ton of dough, but achieving the American Dream of homeownership only requires them to fork over about 26% of their median household income. Meanwhile, it takes 32% of a household’s income to buy a place to live in a blue state.
In a purple state? It’ll run you about 25% of your income to purchase your own place.
3. Who’s paying the most rent?
Renting ain’t a cakewalk in the liberal swath of the nation either, at an average $1,381 a month.
That’s quite a chunk of change—52.1% more than those in red states, where tenants shell out an average $904 a month. And it’s 34.9% more than renters are paying in purple states, at $1,204 a month.
“The cost of housing is directly tied to how much land is available,” realtor.com’s Smoke says. “The parts of the country that have an abundance of land have the lowest housing costs.”
4. Where are the biggest homes?
Homes are biggest where land is cheapest—and property is the least expensive down South and in rural America. You probably knew that. And those areas tend to vote Republican. You probably knew that, too.
For example, the median red state listing is about 2,000 square feet—about 210 square feet larger than in more left-leaning states and 100 square feet larger than homes in purple states.
The largest homes in the United States? You’ll find ’em in the red state of Utah. But the two cities with the most spacious digs were in a swing state: Colorado’s Denver and Colorado Springs.
Meanwhile, the smallest median square footage can be found in bluer-than-blue District of Columbia. That’s followed by the Hawaiian Islands, where space understandably goes for a premium.
The city with the tiniest median digs is Miami. (Notoriously cramped cities like New York likely didn’t make the list, as the only data available was at the metro level, which factors in surrounding suburbs.)
5. Where do folks own the most second homes?
Blue state buyers may not own as many homes, but residents in those areas are 14% likelier to own a second home. Got that? They’re also 9% more likely to own real estate as an investment.
It makes sense, since as we noted above, these folks are raking in more dough than their peers in more conservative swaths of the country.
6. Which states have the oldest houses?
Since many of the blue state cities are older than their red peers, the housing stock also has quite a bit more history. About 19% of all houses were built in or before 1939 in left-leaning hubs. That’s 95% more than red states, and 36% higher than in purple states.
Think about it: New York and Boston were founded more than 200 years before metros like Atlanta and Dallas were established in the mid-1800s.
7. Which states have the most mobile homes?
Those living in conservative states are 33% more likely to live in mobile homes, often found in trailer parks. They’re also most likely to wind up in manufactured abodes made in factories.
The highest concentration of mobile and manufactured homes are based in the red—and poor—state of Mississippi. The metro with the highest percentage of these lower-priced residences is Jacksonville, MS.
The fewest mobile homes? Washington, DC, and the blue state of New Jersey. The city with the lowest percentage of these homes is super-expensive San Francisco.
8. Who has the most solar panels?
Liberal states tend to have more eco-friendly residents, who are 12% more likely to have solar panels installed on the roofs of their homes than those living in other states.
The most panels by sheer number were installed in the blue state of California, whereas Hawaii has the highest percentage of residences with the eco-friendly power source. Silicon Valley’s San Jose, CA, is the city with the highest percentage of homes with solar panels.
The fewest number of panels are in the red state of Wyoming. Memphis, TN, was the city where the smallest percentage of residents invested in them.
The bottom line?
“[The analysis] was a perfect statement of why there are such differences politically between red and blue states,” realtor.com’s Smoke says. “The way of life is clearly different between the two.”
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